About the Actor

Andy was a successful small business owner who discovered a passion for trading in the 1980s. He became a technical analyst for CTS Financial Publishing and during his time there he was CTS Editor In Chief, overseeing the Futures, Futures Options, and Stock Options publications and advisory services. During his tenure at CTS, Andy also wrote, recorded, and published the Daily Trend Watch, a daily futures advisory, the Daily Trend Watch Classroom, an educational futures service, and the MR2 Alert, a combination advisory and tutorial specifically related to futures options. Since leaving in 2001, he has been working as an independent trader and analyst for private individuals and corporations.

Using a tried and true methodology, Andy Chambers will show you how the basic tenets of technical analysis can translate into big gains for you in futures options. During this 90-minute DVD, Andy will review his favorite trade setups, explain h (more…)

Dwayne Strocen, President of Genuine Trading Solutions says once upon a time a Commodity Trading Advisor was content to be known as a Portfolio Manager trading commodities and futures for a managed futures fund. There is no question today’s investor has become more sophisticated. In response, today’s selection of investment products has become ever more complex and varied, the need for the CTA to understand the uses and management of these products becomes even more acute.

So what exactly is the role of today’s Commodity Trading Advisor. Certainly trading of derivative products for a managed futures fund continues to be as important as before. A CTA has also become more involved with derivative analytics. This role is essentially focused upon becoming an analyst to structure and analyze the more multi-faceted requirements demanded by hedge funds, pension funds and structured products.

The use of derivative analytics to manage the adverse risk of an equity or bond portfolio brought about by adverse market conditions is critical in preserving asset growth. The uses of hedging to prevent volatility has long been understood by the largest institutions but is now available to the smaller sized company and to the individual investor. No doubt as products continue to evolve so too will the CTA evolve to meet the need of today’s professional money manager.

Derivative products are no longer limited to exchange traded commodities futures and options. There continues to be an ever expanding list of over-the-counter derivative products. These are SWAPS. SWAPS and privately transacted products transacted without the use of a recognized exchange. The difficulty is the buyer and seller must find each other to undertake such an arrangement, not always easy. The second problem is no liquidity. There is no one to sell this too should one of the parties wish to terminate the transaction prior to the agreed upon date.

A Commodity Trading Advisor’s role is no longer sufficient to be limited to trading. It is now imperative to understand the industry in a new light so to understand the changing investment environment. Analysis now becomes the catalyst to include a value added service to retain customers. This includes structured products, risk management and OTC derivatives. Continuing education has been and continues to be the hallmark of the best in the industry.

The underlying probability calculation assumes that the stock price movements are random events, like throwing dice. Of course, stock price movements are not purely random, but are affected by news, rumors, crowd psychology and many more factors. But it isn’t a bad approximation for the reality, especially when averaged over many stocks and over long periods of time.

The essence of the problem derives from the old financial adage, there’s no free lunch. If you were to establish trades with these probabilities, the returns will be rather small, of the order of 7% to 10%. But the losses would be huge, of the order of 90% to 100%. The bottom line is that the one or two losses each year would be large enough to wipe out all of the gains for the year. Thus, there is only a small probability of a losing trade, but when it happens, it will be a devastating loss.

Some traders will readily acknowledge that these high probability trades don’t make sense, and will sell the idea of so called “low risk” trades, where the potential loss is small, hence the label of low risk. These trades are simply the mirror image of the high probability trade. The low risk trade is characterized by a huge potential gain, of the order of 200% or more, but there is a very small probability of that successful outcome. In this case, one would lose a small amount on the trade 10 or 11 months out of the year and then have 1 or 2 large gains. The problem is that the large gains would not compensate for the large number of small losses.

In either case, the outcome is the same, a small net loss, especially after commissions and other costs of trading. So is options trading inherently a losing game? No, not necessarily, there are many examples of successful, long term options traders. They succeed by paying attention to two critical factors: 1) keeping one’s ratio of winning trades to losing trades as high as possible, and 2) minimizing the losses on the inevitable losing trades. But those topics require a much more extensive treatment than can be done in a short article.

One’s choice of either the high probability trade or the low risk trade is not a financial issue – neither is inherently superior. Neither trade will be successful long term without other considerations. One’s choice of the high probability or the low risk trade is primarily a matter of matching one’s trading style and risk tolerance with the right trade.

Review

For those who desire timely reporting straight from the trenches, this book is a must. — Peter Carr, PhD, Head of Quantitative Financial Research, Bloomberg LPThis book has innovative ideas, state of the art applications, and contains a wealth of valuable information. — Peter Ritchken, Kenneth Walter Haber Professor, Department of Banking and FinanceThis state of the art text emphasizes various contemporary topics in fixed income derivatives from a practitioner’s perspective. The combination of martingale technology with the author’s expert practical knowledge contributes hugely to the book’s success. For those who desire timely reporting straight from the trenches, this book is a must. –Peter Carr, PhD,Head of Quantitative Financial Research, Bloomberg LP, Director of the Masters in Math Finance Program, Courant, Institute, NYU

Review

It is quite obvious that the authors have significant practical experience in sophisticated quantitat (more…)